Round 19 · Mexico City
We forecast every Grand Prix

BeforeLightsOut

Years of form, every circuit's DNA, reliability and live weather — run through ten thousand race simulations and distilled into real win, podium and points odds. Locked before the cars roll out.

View Mexico City forecast →See the record
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The percentages

A of 30% means the driver won 30% of . It’s odds, not a promise: 30% shots come in about one race in three.

Why “locked”

Every forecast is when it’s posted and graded after the race, misses included. See the record.

Where to start

This weekend’s forecast, then the grid for every driver and team, and circuits for where they race.

Last time out

Round 18
United States Grand Prix · 2026

Called it

We posted ANTONELLI at 61% once the grid was set. ANTONELLI won.
Pre-weekendRUSSELL42%✗
After qualifyingANTONELLI61%✓
Won the raceKimi ANTONELLIMercedes
Podium 2/3Scored after qualifyingNever revised
Our number on ANTONELLI, through the weekend
16%
33%
30%
61%
Pre-FP1FP1 + FP2FP3Qualifying

Pre-weekend we had RUSSELL. Qualifying moved us to ANTONELLI.

Open the full weekend →
Spoiler-free mode

Hiding the verdict, which give away the United States Grand Prix.

This weekend

Round 19 of 23 ·
Starting soon · Post-qualifying

Mexico City
Grand Prix

Mexico City
Projected winner
George RUSSELL
32.0%
SHARE OF 10,000 SIMULATED WINS
Dry · 25°CRain 2% 35% 67%
Locked01 NOV 03:03 UTC#6db9fe5dfcAfter qualifying · rev 3
Weekend timetable
  1. FP1—
  2. FP2—
  3. FP3—
  4. Quali—
  5. Race—
 
Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez
Mexico City
4.234 KM
71 LAPS
17 TURNS
Low overtakingPermanent circuit

71 laps of a 4.234 km circuit — about 301 km of racing, with the safety car out in roughly 35% of races here.

Recent winners here
2025Lando NORRIS
2024Carlos SAINZ
2023Max VERSTAPPEN
Open full forecast →
The machine

How a forecast
is built

01
Ingest
Years of form for every driver, plus live track and weather, updated all weekend. Each circuit's quirks are built in too.
FORM · CIRCUIT DNA · WEATHER
02
Simulate
We run each race thousands of times. The things that swing a result play out differently every run, so we cover every way Sunday could go.
10,000 RACE SIMULATIONS
03
Forecast
Add up every run and you get each driver's win, podium and points chances. We update them from Thursday through qualifying and lock each one when we post it.
WIN · PODIUM · POINTS
Read the full methodology →
How the odds are made
10,000
Races run before the real one
Each simulation is one version of Sunday. Run ten thousand and you get the real odds.
EACH BAR = ONE WAY THE RACE ENDSRE-RUN EVERY SESSION · LOCKED AT LIGHTS OUT
RUSSELL WINS · 3,200 OF 10,000 RUNS

The track record

96 RACES GRADED · 12 POSTED LIVE IN 2026 · NO EDITS AFTER LIGHTS OUT
47→68%
Race winners called
pre-weekend → after qualifying
The call made before the weekend on form alone (47%), then again once qualifying sets the grid (68%), across 96 graded races. Posted live this season: 1/11 pre-weekend, 8/11 after qualifying.
52→69%
Podium picks landed
pre-weekend → after qualifying
Share of podium calls that come home — 52% on the locked pre-weekend call, 69% once the grid is set.
+6%
Less finishing-order error
than the grid
vs “the grid is the result”
Assume every car finishes where it started and you miss by a certain number of places on average. Our predicted finishing order misses by 6% less.
96
Races graded
12 posted live · 84 walk-forward
12 of these were forecast and posted before the race ran. The rest are a walk-forward backtest: each race predicted using only data from before it, the way it would have been called live. Both are scored the same way.
EVERY GRADED RACE — FILLED = WINNER CALLED
2022 R15 →→ 2026 R18
Audit every call →
Circuit DNA

Every track remembers

Every track traced from real lap data — bar the one nobody has driven yet, which is drawn from its published map and marked as such. How easy it is to pass, how often the safety car shows up, how fast tyres wear — measured per circuit and used in every simulation.
Albert Park
5.232 KM · 14 TURNS · 58 LAPS
Shanghai
5.398 KM · 16 TURNS · 56 LAPS
Suzuka
5.768 KM · 18 TURNS · 53 LAPS
Miami Autodrome
5.343 KM · 19 TURNS · 57 LAPS
Circuit Gilles Villeneuve
4.316 KM · 14 TURNS · 70 LAPS
Monaco
3.265 KM · 19 TURNS · 78 LAPS
Barcelona-Catalunya
4.638 KM · 14 TURNS · 66 LAPS
Red Bull Ring
4.298 KM · 10 TURNS · 71 LAPS
Silverstone
5.832 KM · 18 TURNS · 52 LAPS
Spa-Francorchamps
6.959 KM · 19 TURNS · 44 LAPS
Hungaroring
4.342 KM · 16 TURNS · 70 LAPS
Circuit Zandvoort
4.238 KM · 14 TURNS · 72 LAPS
Monza
5.754 KM · 11 TURNS · 53 LAPS
Madring
5.474 KM · 22 TURNS · 57 LAPS
Baku City
5.939 KM · 20 TURNS · 51 LAPS
Sepang
5.543 KM · 15 TURNS · 56 LAPS
Marina Bay
4.887 KM · 19 TURNS · 62 LAPS
Circuit of the Americas
5.422 KM · 20 TURNS · 56 LAPS
Hermanos Rodriguez
4.234 KM · 17 TURNS · 71 LAPS
Jose Carlos Pace
4.240 KM · 15 TURNS · 71 LAPS
Las Vegas Strip
6.165 KM · 17 TURNS · 50 LAPS
Lusail
5.380 KM · 16 TURNS · 57 LAPS
Yas Marina
5.220 KM · 16 TURNS · 58 LAPS
← DRAG —— 23 CIRCUITS MAPPED →

Season pulse

5 races remaining
Title favorite
Charles LECLERC
Ferrari
49%
to take the Drivers' crown
NEAREST — ANTONELLI AT 28%
Upcoming rounds
R19MexicoFavorite · RUSSELL 32%→
R20BrazilForecast · coming soon→
R21Las VegasForecast · coming soon→
R22QatarForecast · coming soon→
R23Abu DhabiForecast · coming soon→
5
Rounds still to run
23
Grands Prix forecast in 2026
Full standings
Championship odds →

See the weekendbefore it unfolds

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FREE · UPDATED EVERY SESSION · EVERY REISSUE ON THE RECORD