Each cell is one driver's chance of winning that Grand Prix across the same simulated seasons — brighter is likelier, scaled against the best single-race chance anyone holds. A row that fades out is a title fight ending quietly.
Share of seasons in which each name is top of the standings after that round. The last column is the championship itself.
Share of simulated seasons in which the title can no longer change hands by that round — the leader's margin is bigger than every point still available.
LECLERC is 4 behind with 125 points still to race for.
He has to outscore ANTONELLI by 5 over the last 5 rounds, 4% of everything still available.
Even winning every race, he needs ANTONELLI to average no more than 24 points a weekend, about a P2 or worse every Sunday.
Our simulations give him 49%.
Ties on points go to whoever has more wins.
Counts these two only; assumes nobody else overtakes them. Grand Prix 25-18-15… sprint 8-7-6…
Hiding the standings, which give away the United States Grand Prix.