Every dot is a number the model holds. Pick a driver to see the ones behind their win probability.
Contribution is measured in expected finishing places — the forecast error before acting on a signal, minus the error after. Positive means the call moved the forecast toward what actually happened.
| Round | Signal | What we saw | Call | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R19 | ReliabilityRed Bull Racing | Brady approved 2026-10-29 (R19 Thursday /brain): rbr-r19-launch-pu, Red Bull launch/PU inconsistency. Pre = locked thursday rev1, post = thursday rev2. | appliednot yet graded | — |
| R19 | Weather TrackFerrari | Not applied. Pre = thursday rev1, post = rev2 (no Ferrari adjustment). | rejectednot yet graded | — |
| R19 | Form NarrativeRUS | note withheld — it described how the model works rather than what happened | rejectednot yet graded | — |
| R19 | Weather TrackMexico City GP | note withheld — it described how the model works rather than what happened | rejectednot yet graded | — |
| R19 | Line-up changeHIR | Haas replaced Ocon with reserve Ryo Hirakawa for FP3, qualifying and race of the Mexico City GP; no reason given (team: not illness). Weekend-only per team; beyond R19 unconfirmed. | appliednot yet graded | — |
| R19 | Form NarrativeHIR | Brady approved 2026-10-31; FP1 0.57s off Bearman. Pre/post = no-save friday dry runs (10k sims) without/with the entry; not republished. | appliednot yet graded | — |
| R19 | Grid PenaltyVER | note withheld — it described how the model works rather than what happened | appliednot yet graded | — |
| R19 | Grid PenaltyLAW | note withheld — it described how the model works rather than what happened | appliednot yet graded | — |
| R19 | Grid PenaltyBOT | 50-place PU grid drop; already last in quali, no grid change. | appliednot yet graded | — |
| R19 | ReliabilityHAM | Not applied. Pre = post = published post-quali rev2 (no change made). | rejectednot yet graded | — |
| R19 | ReliabilityALO | Brady declined 2026-10-31: Alonso DNF +0.02. Not applied. Pre = post = published post-quali rev2 (no change made). | rejectednot yet graded | — |
| R19 | Weather TrackMexico City GP | note withheld — it described how the model works rather than what happened | rejectednot yet graded | — |
| R19 | Form NarrativeVER | Pre = post = published post-quali rev2 (no change made). | rejectednot yet graded | — |
| R19 | Grid PenaltyLAW | Lawson disqualified from Qualifying (MGU-K minimum power breach in Q2); starts P22 by stewards' permission, superseding the 1-place FP2 drop. Post-quali rev3. Note: FIA grid parser misses HIR (debut, no season results), so HIR shows grid 20 instead of official P18. | appliednot yet graded | — |
| R18 | Upgrade TdMercedes | Brady approved 2026-10-22 (R18 Thursday /brain): Mercedes upgrade-direction uncertainty (σ+0.02, no pace/reliability change). | appliedhelped | +0.01 |
| R18 | Weather TrackThe field | No adjustment applied; post = pre (zero-magnitude proposal). | rejectedno measurable effect | 0.00 |
| R18 | Technical & upgradesFerrari | Brady approved 2026-10-23 (R18 Friday /brain): fer-r18-floor-package, Ferrari 4-part Performance package (floor body, floor board, sidepod inlet/coke, diffuser). Snapshot pre = locked R18 thursday call; post left empty because the Thursday milestone is locked (no rerun) and the Friday predict runs in GitHub Actions after FP2. | appliednot yet graded | — |
| R18 | Technical & upgradesRacing Bulls | Brady approved 2026-10-23 (R18 Friday /brain): rb-r18-aero-package, Racing Bulls 4-part Performance package (front wing endplate, rear wing flaps, floor body, coke/engine cover). Snapshot pre = locked R18 thursday call; post left empty because the Thursday milestone is locked (no rerun) and the Friday predict runs in GitHub Actions after FP2. | appliednot yet graded | — |
| R18 | Technical & upgradesMcLaren, Audi, Alpine, Red Bull Racing, Cadillac | Brady approved 2026-10-23 for the record (R18 Friday /brain): field-r18-minor-updates (McLaren 3P, Audi 3P, Alpine 2P, RBR 1P/1R, Cadillac 1P/1 cooling). | appliedno measurable effect | 0.00 |
| R18 | Pu Change Back Of GridBOR | note withheld — it described how the model works rather than what happened | appliedhurt | −3.70 |
| R18 | Grid PenaltyCOL | note withheld — it described how the model works rather than what happened | appliedhelped | +2.85 |
| R18 | Weather TrackVER, HAD | note withheld — it described how the model works rather than what happened | appliednot yet graded | — |
| R18 | Driver fitnessVER | Not applied. | rejectednot yet graded | — |
| R18 | Form NarrativeFerrari | note withheld — it described how the model works rather than what happened | rejectednot yet graded | — |
| R17 | Pu Change Back Of GridRUS | The model only forecasts the GP, so this is race-only. Snapshots: pre = final call without this proposal, post = final call. | appliedhelped | +0.54 |
| R17 | Weather TrackThe field | Brady approved 2026-10-08 (R17 Thursday /brain): Singapore heat hazard + two Saturday rain cells (Sprint / GP quali), Sunday mostly dry. Snapshots: pre = final call without this proposal, post = final call. | appliedno measurable effect | 0.00 |
| R17 | Driver & team formCadillac | No adjustment applied; post = pre (zero-magnitude proposal). | rejectedno measurable effect | 0.00 |
| R17 | ReliabilityHAD | Brady declined 2026-10-10 (R17 Saturday /brain): Hadjar reliability chain (Sprint PU + quali gearbox; σ+0.03 / dnf +0.03). No adjustment applied; post = pre. | rejectedno measurable effect | 0.00 |
| R17 | Grid Penalty PendingALO | No adjustment applied; post = pre (zero-magnitude proposal). | rejectedno measurable effect | 0.00 |
| R17 | Team OrdersMcLaren | Brady declined 2026-10-10 (R17 Saturday /brain): McLaren NOR/PIA intra-team clash (Sprint Turn 5; σ+0.02). No adjustment applied; post = pre. | rejectedno measurable effect | 0.00 |
| R16 | Pu Change Back Of GridLIN | Snapshots: pre = final call without this proposal, post = final call. | appliedhurt | −4.59 |
| R16 | Grid PenaltyHAD | Applied once to the pre-quali grid; FIA docs/grid supersede it later. Snapshots: pre = final call without this proposal, post = final call. | appliedhurt | −3.01 |
| R16 | Weather TrackThe field | Snapshots: pre = final call without this proposal, post = final call. | appliedno measurable effect | 0.00 |
| R16 | Technical & upgradesMercedes | Brady declined 2026-10-01: Mercedes upgrade chatter stays OFF; waits for Friday's /brain (FIA Car Presentation doc) — no pace credit invented. No adjustment applied. | rejectednot yet graded | — |
| R16 | Driver & team formANT | No adjustment applied. | rejectednot yet graded | — |
| R16 | Technical & upgradesMercedes | Brady approved 2026-10-01 (R16 Friday /brain draft): mer-r16-floor-package, Mercedes 7-part Performance package (floor/diffuser/rear suspension fairings/rear corner/rear bodywork). Supersedes Thursday's declined mer-r16-upgrade-chatter. Snapshots: pre = thursday call without this proposal, post = with it. | appliedno measurable effect | 0.00 |
| R16 | Technical & upgradesRed Bull Racing, Ferrari, Racing Bulls, Haas F1 Team, Alpine, McLaren | Brady declined 2026-10-01: field-r16-minor-updates (RBR floor board, Ferrari diffuser, Racing Bulls front flap + rear-wing aux, Haas RIS device, Alpine brake-cooling drum exit, McLaren cooling engine cover). | rejectednot yet graded | — |
| R16 | Pu Change Back Of GridLIN | Brady declined 2026-10-01: lin-r16-pu-doc-watch (no-action watch; Doc 9 pre-event shows no new LIN PU elements yet). | rejectednot yet graded | — |
| R16 | Grid PenaltyCOL | Auto-applied FIA hard facts missed on first post-quali publish: COL Baku restart collision converted to 5-place Sepang drop + FIA Doc 18 5th ICE = 10-place drop (total 15). Post-quali regenerates with FastF1 quali class + news CSV. | appliednot yet graded | — |
| R16 | Grid PenaltyBahrain Grand Prix | note withheld — it described how the model works rather than what happened | appliednot yet graded | — |