Round 19 · Mexico City
12 races posted live · 84 walk-forward backtest ·

Track Record

We score two calls per race: the pre-weekend call and the after-qualifying call, across 96 races. 12 were forecast and posted before they ran, in 2026; the rest are a walk-forward backtest, each race predicted using only data from before it. Every race is tagged with which it is.

The Numbers

pre-weekend → after qualifying
47%→68%
Race winners
called
pre-weekend → after quali
52%→69%
Podium positions
placed right
pre-weekend → after quali
76%→78%
Top-ten finishers
identified
pre-weekend → after quali
3.5pos→3.2pos
Average finishing-
position error
pre-weekend → after quali · lower is better

Notable Calls

Live and backtest calls
Sharpest call
Australian '25
Lando NORRIS
Called at just 20% — the lowest-probability winner we still got right.
✓ held the call after quali at 37%
Biggest miss
Singapore '23
Max VERSTAPPEN → Carlos SAINZ
Our most confident wrong call at 70%. Carlos SAINZ won instead.
✓ recovered after quali — switched to Carlos SAINZ
Longest streak
10vs19
pre-weekend vs after quali
10 pre-weekend
Miami '23 → Italian '23
19 after quali
Monaco '23 → Saudi Arabian '24

Accuracy Over Time

Cumulative · oldest → newest
0%25%50%75%100%20222023202420252026pre-weekendafter quali47%68%
The white line is the running accuracy of the pre-weekend call — green dots are correct, red are misses. The green dashed line is the same model after qualifying (running 68% across the full 96-race backtest). The gap between the two lines is what qualifying is worth. Hover a dot for the race.

Where We're Wrong

the model, audited against itself
Every prediction below is from the same walk-forward, scored across 96 races. We break the errors down by where they come from — not to explain them away, but because a forecaster that can name its own blind spots is the only kind worth trusting.
Bias by starting position
avg places finished vs where we placed them
P1-1.96
P2-5-1.31
P6-10-1.06
P11-15+0.47
P16++1.86
← over-rated (we place them too high) · under-rated → (they climb past us)
Hardest circuits
finishing-order error (places), worst first
Melbourne4.84
Silverstone4.22
Sao Paulo4.15
Montreal4.07
Lusail4
Shanghai3.97
Most over-rated
qualify better than they finish
Kimi Antonelli-2.12
Charles Leclerc-2.06
George Russell-1.79
Carlos Sainz-1.26
Lando Norris-1.26
Most under-rated
finish ahead of where we place them
Franco Colapinto+1.66
Esteban Ocon+1.51
Oliver Bearman+1.5
Valtteri Bottas+1.46
Nico Hulkenberg+1.44
The blind spot we can name

Cars whose race pace beats their grid slot finish +0.63 places better than we predict, versus -0.26 for everyone else. We measured this signal, proved it's real — and found it can't be fixed without hurting the ~95% of races the starting grid already explains. So we leave it visible rather than chase it: the model is grid-anchored on purpose, and this is the price.

Against The Market

Model vs the closing line
+0.000probability
score edge
The model leads the de-vigged closing market across 94 verified post-qualifying snapshots. This is a difference in average probability accuracy—not a 7.1% return, profit margin, or guarantee that the edge will persist.
Winner log-loss · lower is better
1.135model1.135market
Market ahead by 0.000
Brier (winner) · lower is better
0.026model0.0269market
All prices normalized to remove the bookmaker margin

Cumulative winner log-loss

Every point includes all verified races up to that weekend. Lower is better; a persistent gap matters more than a single upset.

Model Closing market
0.50.91.21.620232024202520262022 R152026 R18

The edge is not uniform

20228 races0.779 / 1.226+0.448
202322 races0.561 / 0.715+0.154
202423 races1.581 / 1.611+0.029
202523 races1.097 / 1.020-0.077
202618 races · live1.473 / 1.145-0.328
Model / market log-loss by season. Bars right of center favor the model; left favor the market.

What the “20%” meant

40%market weight adopted

A full-data fit found a 40% market blend looked best in-sample. But leave-one-race-out testing scored it at 1.0863, slightly worse than the pure model's 1.135. So the production forecast stays unblended.

Candidate only: 80% model probability + 20% de-vigged market probability. It was never a claim of “20% edge.”

Calibration

96 races · Brier 0.0649
0–10%: predicted ~1%, observed 1% (1339 outcomes)10–20%: predicted ~14%, observed 13% (130 outcomes)20–30%: predicted ~25%, observed 26% (110 outcomes)30–40%: predicted ~35%, observed 21% (62 outcomes)40–50%: predicted ~45%, observed 49% (72 outcomes)50–60%: predicted ~55%, observed 54% (61 outcomes)60–70%: predicted ~65%, observed 79% (56 outcomes)70–80%: predicted ~76%, observed 83% (59 outcomes)80–90%: predicted ~84%, observed 82% (55 outcomes)90–100%: predicted ~92%, observed 70% (10 outcomes)Predicted probability →Observed frequency →0perfect
Each dot is a probability bucket: x = what we predicted, y = how often it actually happened, sized by sample. On the line = well-calibrated; below = over-confident; above = under-confident.

Race-by-Race

Click a race → weekend detail · Every race in full →
The main row is the pre-weekend pick (no practice, no qualifying) — the hardest call. The smaller line beneath it is the same model after qualifying. Click any race to see the full weekend evolution.
One square per race, oldest → newest. Filled = the pre-weekend pick won; the after-qualifying call is scored on each row below.
96 of 96 races
Predicted
Actual
Result · pre-weekend
United States
R18LIVE
George RUSSELL
quali → Kimi ANTONELLI
Kimi ANTONELLI
MISS
✓ after quali
42%
61%
›
Singapore
R17LIVE
Charles LECLERC
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
MISS
✓ after quali
29%
36%
›
Bahrain
R16LIVE
Kimi ANTONELLI
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
MISS
✓ after quali
37%
26%
›
Azerbaijan
R15LIVE
George RUSSELL
quali → George RUSSELL
George RUSSELL
HIT
✓ after quali
40%
68%
›
Spanish
R14LIVE
Charles LECLERC
quali → Kimi ANTONELLI
Kimi ANTONELLI
MISS
✓ after quali
24%
33%
›
Italian
R13LIVE
George RUSSELL
quali → George RUSSELL
Kimi ANTONELLI
MISS
✕ after quali
49%
47%
›
Dutch
R12LIVE
Kimi ANTONELLI
quali → Lando NORRIS
Lando NORRIS
MISS
✓ after quali
41%
53%
›
Hungarian
R11LIVE
Kimi ANTONELLI
quali → Lando NORRIS
Lando NORRIS
MISS
✓ after quali
39%
39%
›
Belgian
R10LIVE
George RUSSELL
quali → Kimi ANTONELLI
Kimi ANTONELLI
MISS
✓ after quali
50%
44%
›
British
R9LIVE
George RUSSELL
quali → Kimi ANTONELLI
Charles LECLERC
MISS
✕ after quali
27%
22%
›
Austrian
R8LIVE
Kimi ANTONELLI
quali → George RUSSELL
George RUSSELL
MISS
✓ after quali
34%
32%
›
Barcelona
R7LIVE
Kimi ANTONELLI
quali → George RUSSELL
Lewis HAMILTON
MISS
✕ after quali
40%
41%
›
Monaco
R6BACKTEST
Kimi ANTONELLI
quali → Kimi ANTONELLI
Kimi ANTONELLI
HIT
✓ after quali
32%
36%
›
Canadian
R5BACKTEST
Kimi ANTONELLI
quali → George RUSSELL
Kimi ANTONELLI
HIT
✕ after quali
32%
41%
›
Miami
R4BACKTEST
Kimi ANTONELLI
quali → Kimi ANTONELLI
Kimi ANTONELLI
HIT
✓ after quali
29%
39%
›
Japanese
R3BACKTEST
George RUSSELL
quali → Kimi ANTONELLI
Kimi ANTONELLI
MISS
✓ after quali
36%
40%
›
Chinese
R2BACKTEST
George RUSSELL
quali → Kimi ANTONELLI
Kimi ANTONELLI
MISS
✓ after quali
30%
29%
›
Australian
R1BACKTEST
Oscar PIASTRI
quali → George RUSSELL
George RUSSELL
MISS
✓ after quali
27%
46%
›
Abu Dhabi
R24 '25BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
39%
41%
›
Qatar
R23 '25BACKTEST
Lando NORRIS
quali → Oscar PIASTRI
Max VERSTAPPEN
MISS
✕ after quali
30%
43%
›
Las Vegas
R22 '25BACKTEST
Lando NORRIS
quali → Lando NORRIS
Max VERSTAPPEN
MISS
✕ after quali
40%
54%
›
São Paulo
R21 '25BACKTEST
Lando NORRIS
quali → Lando NORRIS
Lando NORRIS
HIT
✓ after quali
37%
59%
›
Mexico City
R20 '25BACKTEST
Lando NORRIS
quali → Lando NORRIS
Lando NORRIS
HIT
✓ after quali
30%
48%
›
United States
R19 '25BACKTEST
Oscar PIASTRI
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
MISS
✓ after quali
38%
52%
›
Singapore
R18 '25BACKTEST
Lando NORRIS
quali → George RUSSELL
George RUSSELL
MISS
✓ after quali
40%
38%
›
Azerbaijan
R17 '25BACKTEST
Oscar PIASTRI
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
MISS
✓ after quali
34%
53%
›
Italian
R16 '25BACKTEST
Lando NORRIS
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
MISS
✓ after quali
37%
43%
›
Dutch
R15 '25BACKTEST
Oscar PIASTRI
quali → Oscar PIASTRI
Oscar PIASTRI
HIT
✓ after quali
36%
52%
›
Hungarian
R14 '25BACKTEST
Oscar PIASTRI
quali → Charles LECLERC
Lando NORRIS
MISS
✕ after quali
38%
36%
›
Belgian
R13 '25BACKTEST
Lando NORRIS
quali → Lando NORRIS
Oscar PIASTRI
MISS
✕ after quali
45%
55%
›
British
R12 '25BACKTEST
Lando NORRIS
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Lando NORRIS
HIT
✕ after quali
32%
44%
›
Austrian
R11 '25BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Lando NORRIS
Lando NORRIS
MISS
✓ after quali
28%
37%
›
Canadian
R10 '25BACKTEST
Oscar PIASTRI
quali → George RUSSELL
George RUSSELL
MISS
✓ after quali
36%
34%
›
Spanish
R9 '25BACKTEST
Oscar PIASTRI
quali → Oscar PIASTRI
Oscar PIASTRI
HIT
✓ after quali
32%
39%
›
Monaco
R8 '25BACKTEST
Oscar PIASTRI
quali → Lando NORRIS
Lando NORRIS
MISS
✓ after quali
33%
42%
›
Emilia Romagna
R7 '25BACKTEST
Oscar PIASTRI
quali → Oscar PIASTRI
Max VERSTAPPEN
MISS
✕ after quali
35%
43%
›
Miami
R6 '25BACKTEST
Oscar PIASTRI
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Oscar PIASTRI
HIT
✕ after quali
40%
56%
›
Saudi Arabian
R5 '25BACKTEST
Oscar PIASTRI
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Oscar PIASTRI
HIT
✕ after quali
34%
60%
›
Bahrain
R4 '25BACKTEST
Lando NORRIS
quali → Oscar PIASTRI
Oscar PIASTRI
MISS
✓ after quali
27%
50%
›
Japanese
R3 '25BACKTEST
Oscar PIASTRI
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
MISS
✓ after quali
30%
46%
›
Chinese
R2 '25BACKTEST
Oscar PIASTRI
quali → Oscar PIASTRI
Oscar PIASTRI
HIT
✓ after quali
32%
27%
›
Australian
R1 '25BACKTEST
Lando NORRIS
quali → Lando NORRIS
Lando NORRIS
HIT
✓ after quali
20%
37%
›
Abu Dhabi
R24 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Lando NORRIS
Lando NORRIS
MISS
✓ after quali
44%
31%
›
Qatar
R23 '24BACKTEST
Lando NORRIS
quali → George RUSSELL
Max VERSTAPPEN
MISS
✕ after quali
26%
34%
›
Las Vegas
R22 '24BACKTEST
Lando NORRIS
quali → George RUSSELL
George RUSSELL
MISS
✓ after quali
31%
46%
›
São Paulo
R21 '24BACKTEST
Lando NORRIS
quali → Lando NORRIS
Max VERSTAPPEN
MISS
✕ after quali
26%
53%
›
Mexico City
R20 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Carlos SAINZ
MISS
✕ after quali
28%
37%
›
United States
R19 '24BACKTEST
Oscar PIASTRI
quali → Lando NORRIS
Charles LECLERC
MISS
✕ after quali
31%
53%
›
Singapore
R18 '24BACKTEST
Charles LECLERC
quali → Lando NORRIS
Lando NORRIS
MISS
✓ after quali
33%
45%
›
Azerbaijan
R17 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Charles LECLERC
Oscar PIASTRI
MISS
✕ after quali
28%
46%
›
Italian
R16 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Charles LECLERC
MISS
✕ after quali
44%
42%
›
Dutch
R15 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Lando NORRIS
Lando NORRIS
MISS
✓ after quali
41%
37%
›
Belgian
R14 '24BACKTEST
Lando NORRIS
quali → Charles LECLERC
Lewis HAMILTON
MISS
✕ after quali
29%
49%
›
Hungarian
R13 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Oscar PIASTRI
MISS
✕ after quali
55%
34%
›
British
R12 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → George RUSSELL
Lewis HAMILTON
MISS
✕ after quali
53%
39%
›
Austrian
R11 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
George RUSSELL
MISS
✕ after quali
46%
52%
›
Spanish
R10 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
51%
48%
›
Canadian
R9 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
50%
52%
›
Monaco
R8 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Charles LECLERC
Charles LECLERC
MISS
✓ after quali
52%
38%
›
Emilia Romagna
R7 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
50%
60%
›
Miami
R6 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Lando NORRIS
MISS
✕ after quali
60%
66%
›
Chinese
R5 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
44%
44%
›
Japanese
R4 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
48%
49%
›
Australian
R3 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Carlos SAINZ
MISS
✕ after quali
62%
64%
›
Saudi Arabian
R2 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
73%
75%
›
Bahrain
R1 '24BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
45%
62%
›
Abu Dhabi
R22 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
59%
66%
›
Las Vegas
R21 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
67%
50%
›
São Paulo
R20 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
61%
73%
›
Mexico City
R19 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
60%
36%
›
United States
R18 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
71%
57%
›
Qatar
R17 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
52%
73%
›
Japanese
R16 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
56%
66%
›
Singapore
R15 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Carlos SAINZ
Carlos SAINZ
MISS
✓ after quali
70%
52%
›
Italian
R14 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
66%
52%
›
Dutch
R13 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
62%
75%
›
Belgian
R12 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
68%
47%
›
Hungarian
R11 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
63%
55%
›
British
R10 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
59%
79%
›
Austrian
R9 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
44%
62%
›
Canadian
R8 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
57%
74%
›
Spanish
R7 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
50%
63%
›
Monaco
R6 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
39%
69%
›
Miami
R5 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Sergio PEREZ
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✕ after quali
55%
45%
›
Azerbaijan
R4 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Sergio PEREZ
MISS
✕ after quali
57%
36%
›
Australian
R3 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
48%
69%
›
Saudi Arabian
R2 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Sergio PEREZ
Sergio PEREZ
MISS
✓ after quali
55%
79%
›
Bahrain
R1 '23BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
39%
49%
›
Abu Dhabi
R22 '22BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
48%
47%
›
São Paulo
R21 '22BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
George RUSSELL
MISS
✕ after quali
55%
30%
›
Mexico City
R20 '22BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
38%
60%
›
United States
R19 '22BACKTEST
Charles LECLERC
quali → Carlos SAINZ
Max VERSTAPPEN
MISS
✕ after quali
38%
47%
›
Japanese
R18 '22BACKTEST
Charles LECLERC
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
MISS
✓ after quali
33%
53%
›
Singapore
R17 '22BACKTEST
Charles LECLERC
quali → Charles LECLERC
Sergio PEREZ
MISS
✕ after quali
38%
44%
›
Italian
R16 '22BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
55%
49%
›
Dutch
R15 '22BACKTEST
Max VERSTAPPEN
quali → Max VERSTAPPEN
Max VERSTAPPEN
HIT
✓ after quali
48%
53%
›
Spoiler-free mode

Hiding the graded results, which give away the United States Grand Prix.